SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTEREY… SAN BENITO… SANTA CRUZ… SANTA CLARA AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM PST
Archive for the ‘weather alerts’ Category
1/20/2010: SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTEREY UNTIL 315 PM PST
Posted in weather alerts on January 20, 2010|
1/18/2010: Weather Outlook from NOAA for Big Sur Valley and Palo Colorado Canyon
Posted in weather alerts on January 18, 2010|
Big Sur Valley
Hazardous weather condition(s):
High Wind Warning
High Surf Warning
Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook
Short Term Forecast
High Surf Warning
Flood Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook
Short Term Forecast
M.L.King Day: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperature falling to around 49 by 5pm. Windy, with a south wind between 36 and 38 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 46. South southwest wind between 11 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: Rain. High near 54. Windy, with a south southeast wind between 30 and 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 45. South wind 14 to 18 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: Rain. High near 53. Windy, with a south southeast wind between 28 and 33 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday Night: Rain. Low around 45. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday: Rain. High near 52. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44.
Friday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Friday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 44.
Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Palo Colorado Canyon
Hazardous weather condition(s):
M.L.King Day: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperature falling to around 50 by 5pm. Windy, with a south wind between 37 and 39 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 47. South southwest wind between 14 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: Rain. High near 55. Windy, with a south southeast wind between 30 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 45. West southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: Rain. High near 54. Windy, with a south southeast wind between 29 and 33 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday Night: Rain. Low around 45. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday: Rain. High near 51. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Friday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 44.
Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
1/18/2010: Significant Weather Advisory and High Surf Advisory
Posted in weather alerts on January 18, 2010|
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTEREY… SANTA CRUZ… SAN MATEO… SANTA CLARA AND ALAMEDA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM PST
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY… … HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
1/18/2010: Weather Advisories- Strong Winds & High Surf
Posted in weather alerts on January 18, 2010|
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUFFET THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS ON MONDAY
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS AS WELL AS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND SALINAS VALLEY AREAS
WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT PST MONDAY NIGHT
1/17/2010: HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
Posted in weather alerts on January 17, 2010|
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
1/15/2010: El Nino
Posted in weather alerts on January 15, 2010|
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the/ entire/ state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done. But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
—
Seaberry Nachbar
B-WET Program Manager California
Education Coordinator
NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program
1/15/2010: A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND IMPACT CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.
Posted in road conditions, weather alerts, tagged weather on January 15, 2010|
…A VERY WET AND WINDY WEEK AHEAD FOR CALIFORNIA STILL ON TRACK…
THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND IMPACT CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY SPELL THE STORM DOOR WILL START TO OPEN WITH A WEAK FRONT BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE FIRST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA STARTING LATE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE SERIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE RAIN INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS.
A SECOND BREAK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT AND MOST POWERFUL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK APPROACHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 3-5 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 1-3 FOR THE VALLEYS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE… A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD…TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 10-15 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS. IN THE VALLEYS…4- 8 INCHES.
ANYONE WITH TRAVEL REQUIREMENTS NEXT WEEK SHOULD TAKE THESE STORMS INTO CONSIDERATION AND BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS… INCLUDING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
MARINERS AND THOSE AT LOCAL BEACHES ARE ALSO ADVISED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS OCEAN AND COASTAL CONDITIONS MOST OF THE WEEK DUE TO LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE WATER.
3/3/09 1:45 PM Hazardous Weather Outlook
Posted in weather alerts on March 3, 2009|
From NOAA:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
MONTEREY BAY AREA.
MONTEREY BAY AREA.
.DAY ONE…TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
3/2/09 1:50 pm Hazarodous Weather Outlook
Posted in weather alerts, tagged hazardous weather on March 2, 2009|
2/19/09: Hazardous Weather Statement for this Weekend
Posted in weather alerts on February 19, 2009|
Per NOAA today:
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN THROUGH OUR AREA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN MOST URBAN AREAS WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. Click here to read the full weather statement
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